Twenty months out from the 2024 elections, there are more questions than answers as to which party will control the executive and legislative branches the following January. Will Joe Biden run again? Have Republican voters grown tired of Donald Trump? Can pollsters and pundits be relied upon following their underperformance in predicting the 2022 midterm results? Both parties have a tenuous grip on their respective Congressional majorities—the GOP in the House and the Democrats in the Senate—and unpredictable events, both political and economic, could sway voters in ways that are difficult to foresee at this point in the campaign cycle.

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NMA has started its spring fundraising for MINEPAC and COALPAC.

The 2024 election cycle has already begun, which means it's time to show increased support for bipartisan candidates and members of Congress who are allies of the mining industry. This election will be highly competitive, and MINEPAC and COALPAC are vital tools that allow for contributions to key races for candidates supporting the mining industry.

PAC to PAC Donations: Please also consider a PAC to PAC contribution from your company’s Political Action Committee to MINEPAC or COALPAC. How can you find out more? Contact mkirlin@nma.org or rjackson@nma.org to send your PAC’s contribution.

Thank you for your valued and critical support.

2024 Presidential Election

With Super Tuesday 2024 less than a year away, jockeying for the major parties’ presidential nominations—particularly that of the GOP, which will have an open primary—has begun. For Democrats, the question is whether President Joe Biden will run for re-election. If not, a host of potential candidates, among them California Governor Gavin Newsom, U.S. Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, Vice President Kamala Harris, and Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer, are likely to throw their hat into the ring. Currently, the only declared Democratic candidate is author Marianne Williamson.

Among Republicans, the declared candidates so far include former President Donald Trump, former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley, and entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy. Among those likely to join are former Vice President Mike Pence, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, and former National Security Advisor John Bolton.

Following the 2020 U.S. Census results, the electoral landscape for 2024 will edge slightly toward the GOP, as states that former President Donald Trump won in 2020 gained three electoral votes while states that President Joe Biden carried lost three electoral votes.

Presidential Candidate Updates

Former South Carolina governor and United Nations ambassador Nikki Haley announced she will seek the Republican nomination for president.

Venture capitalist Vivek Ramaswamy also threw his hat in the Republican ring.

Author Marianne Williamson announced a bid to challenge President Biden for the Democratic nomination.

The Hill profiled “eight Republicans who could challenge Trump in 2024” and ranked the GOP’s top 10 presidential candidates.

Republican Presidential Announcements Watch: Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie said he will decide in 45 to 60 days. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis said he’ll decide at some point after the Florida legislative session adjourns on May 5. Former Vice President Mike Pence said he would decide “by the spring.” New Hampshire Governor Chris Sununu said he’ll decide “by this summer.” Senator Tim Scott said he has no firm timeline while he’s on a “listening tour” of the country.

Democrats approved a revised schedule for presidential primaries in 2024, elevating South Carolina as the nation's first primary and removing Iowa from the list of early contests.

Political analyst Nathan Gonzales advised: “Beware of overanalyzing what 2023 elections mean for 2024.”

Fundraising

Punchbowl News summarized the March fundraising and spending totals of the party campaign committees.

Departing Members List

2024 U.S. Senate Competitive Seats

The U.S. Senate currently comprises 51 Democrats (including three Independents who caucus with the Democrats) and 49 Republicans. Thirty-four seats are up for election in 2024, of which 23 are held by Democrats or Independents. Republicans can retake control of the Upper Chamber with a net gain of two seats or by winning the 2024 presidential election together with a net gain of one seat.

Democrats’ challenges in holding their majority will include having to defend seats in the red states of Montana, Ohio, and West Virginia, as well as the purple states of Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. They have few pickup opportunities this cycle.

Montana
Incumbent Senator Jon Tester (D-MT) announced in February that he will run for a fourth term in office. While Donald Trump won the state by 16 points in 2020, Tester has repeatedly outperformed his party’s presidential candidates, winning election in 2012 by four percentages points and re-election in 2018 by three points. Tester, who holds a 60% approval rating among his state’s voters, will likely face one of Montana’s two sitting House members, former Interior Secretary Ryan Zinke (R) or Rep. Matt Rosendale (R). Tester leads both in early polling, while The Cook Political Report rates the race Lean D.

Ohio
Senator Sherrod Brown (D-OH), the last Democrat elected statewide in Ohio since 2011, will run for a fourth term in office. In a state that voted for Donald Trump by eight percentage points in 2020, Brown most recently won re-election (in 2018) by seven points. Matt Dolan (R), a former state representative whose family owns Major League Baseball’s Cleveland Guardians and who finished third out of seven candidates in the 2022 GOP Senate primary, is running for the GOP nomination. The Cook Political Report rates the race Toss Up.

West Virginia
Joe Manchin (D-WV) is the third Democratic Senator facing re-election in a state won by Donald Trump in 2020 (by 39 points). And while Manchin prevailed by three points in his last re-election, his in-state favorability has dropped since his support of the Inflation Reduction Act last year and he faces a likely tough battle if he chooses to run in 2024. Recent polling indicates that Governor Jim Justice (R) stands the best chance to beat Manchin. Five-term West Virginia congressman Rep. Alex Mooney (R) has announced his candidacy. State Attorney General Patrick Morrisey (R), who lost narrowly to Manchin in 2018, may also enter the race. The Cook Political Report rates the race Toss Up.

Arizona
Senator Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ) faces a stiff challenge if she chooses to run for re-election this cycle. Thus far, Sinema—who left the Democratic Party last December and thus will avoid a primary battle—will face five-term congressman Rep. Ruben Gallego (D), who singled her out for criticism in his January announcement of his intention to run for her Senate seat. This sets up the potential to divide the vote of Democratic and left-leaning Independent voters, thereby helping the Republican nominee. Republicans Kari Lake and Blake Masters, who ran unsuccessfully for the governorship and U.S. Senate, respectively, in 2022 are both considering a run for Sinema’s seat.

Michigan
Four-term Senator Debbie Stabenow (D-MI) will not seek re-election in 2024, opening up a seat in a battleground state that has trended toward Democrats in recent years. Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-MI) is the only announced Democratic candidate, while two Republicans—businessman Michael Hoover and Nikki Snyder, a member of the State Board of Education—have both declared their candidacies. Thus far, former Rep. Peter Meijer (R-MI) has yet to decide whether he will enter the race.

Nevada
First-term Senator Jacky Rosen (D-NV) won her seat in 2018 by defeating GOP incumbent Senator Dean Heller by less than one percentage point. As of yet, her only announced challenger is attorney Ronda Kennedy (R). More prominent Republicans, such as former Governor Brian Sandoval and Former Lieutenant Governor and Treasurer Brian Krolicki, have yet to declare their intentions.

Pennsylvania
Three-term Senator Bob Casey Jr. (D-PA), who is recovering from cancer surgery in February, has yet to announce whether he will seek re-election next year. The son of former Pennsylvania Governor Robert Casey Sr., he is the first Democratic senator from the Keystone State to win three terms, the first person to win six statewide elections, and defeated his GOP challenger, Lou Barletta, in the 2018 election by 13 points. Former hedge fund CEO David McCormick, who lost narrowly to Mehmet Oz in the 2022 Senate GOP primary, is considering another run and is believed to have widespread support among party leaders from around the country.

2024 U.S. Senate Race Rankings

Blue type indicates seat currently held by a Democrat; red type indicates seat currently held by a Republican.

Source: Cook Political Report, January 24, 2023.

U.S. Senate Updates

U.S. Senator Dianne Feinstein (D-CA) announced she will not stand for re-election in 2024.

U.S. Senator Jon Tester (D-MT) announced he will seek re-election, giving Democrats a boost in a deep red state.

CNN published: “Key senators torn over retirement decisions as party leaders try to fortify 2024 standing.”

The Hill published: “Democrats brace for another Senate nail-biter in Nevada.”

Axios outlined the “Senate GOP’s 2024 landmines.”

Politico published: “Senate absences multiply headaches for both parties,” while noting that the last time all 100 members attended a vote was August 7, 2022.

2024 U.S. House Race Rankings

Republicans currently hold a nine-seat majority in the U.S. House of Representatives (222-213), the same advantage that Democrats held in the previous Congressional session. Democrats plan to target the 18 House Republicans in districts that President Biden won in 2020, which include seven in New York, five in California, two in Arizona, and one apiece in Nebraska, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and Virginia.

In its first rankings of the 2024 House races, The Cook Political Report lists 8 of those 18 races as Toss Up R: AZ-01 Schweikert, AZ-06 Ciscomani, CA-13 Duarte, NJ-07 Kean Jr., NY-04 D'Esposito, NY-17 Lawler, NY-19 Molinaro, and NY-22 Williams; NY-03 Santos is rated Lean D. For Democrats, the list of seats most vulnerable (Toss Up D) are CO-08 Caraveo, MI-07 Open (Slotkin), NC-01 Davis, NC-06 Manning, NC-13 Nickel, NC-14 Jackson, NM-02 Vasquez, OH-01 Landsman, OH-13 Sykes, PA-07 Wild, PA-08 Cartwright, and WA-03 Perez.

Blue type indicates seat currently held by a Democrat; red type indicates seat currently held by a Republican.

Source: Cook Political Report, February 28, 2023.

U.S. House Updates

The National Republican Congressional Committee outlined the 37 districts it views as potential pick-up opportunities for next year’s elections.

Punchbowl News published the slides from the NRCC’s presentation to its members.

U.S. Rep. David Cicilline (D-RI) announced he will resign in June.

The Hill published: “House Republicans find their groove as challenges loom.”

2024 Governor Race Rankings

Republicans currently hold 26 Governor’s seats to Democrats’ 24. And while the GOP will have to defend more seats in the current cycle (9-5), the three likeliest to flip, according to The Cook Political Report, are all currently held by Democrats. Beshear (KY) and Open, Cooper (NC) are both rated Lean D, while Open, Edwards (LA) is rated Lean R. Three Southern states will hold their gubernatorial elections in November 2023: Kentucky, Louisiana, and Mississippi.

Blue type indicates seat currently held by a Democrat; red type indicates seat currently held by a Republican.

Source: Cook Political Report, February 16, 2023.

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Questions? Comments? Feel free to contact Ryan Jackson, Senior Vice President, Government & Political Affairs, at RJackson@nma.org. Thank you for your continued support of the Political Action Committees of the National Mining Association!