Six months out from the midterm elections, the GOP continues to gain momentum toward retaking the House majority in the next Congress. With inflation surging and President Biden’s approval ratings stuck in the low-40s, the environment appears ripe for voters to turn against the party currently in control of the Executive Branch and both houses of Congress. In the Senate—while Republicans are defending seven more seats than the Democrats—the GOP could move into the majority if they can flip even one seat.

Board Meeting Speaker Highlights

Brenda Mallory

Brenda Mallory is the Chair of the Council on Environmental Quality (CEQ), which coordinates the federal government’s efforts to improve, preserve, and protect America’s public health and environment. She is the first African American to serve in this position.

The first in her family to attend college, Mallory graduated from Yale with a double major in history and sociology and then from Columbia Law School as a Harlan Fiske Stone Scholar. She began her environmental law career in private practice, where much of her work involved helping local governments secure federal environmental approvals for economic development projects. She eventually chaired the law firm’s Natural Resources Practice Group.

Through this work, she gained experience in the application of the National Environmental Policy Act, the bedrock statute that created CEQ in 1969 and which the agency administers. In 2000, she joined the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in its Office of Wetlands, Oceans, and Watersheds, commencing an almost 20-year career in federal service.

Mallory served in a number of senior roles throughout her federal career at EPA and CEQ. In her first stint at CEQ as General Counsel, she helped shepherd many of President Obama’s signature environmental and natural resource policies to completion. She worked on the development of significant climate and environmental rules and policies, including the 2016 NEPA GHG guidance. She then spent four years working in environmental advocacy, most recently as the Director of Regulatory Policy at the Southern Environmental Law Center, before returning to CEQ in her current role.

U.S. Senator Shelley Moore Capito (R-WV)

Shelley Moore Capito is the first female U.S. senator in West Virginia’s history. She first took office in 2014 and was re-elected in 2020 with the largest margin of victory for a Republican in state history—winning more than 70 percent of the vote and all 55 counties.

Senator Capito serves as Ranking Member of the U.S. Senate Environment and Public Works Committee (EPW); on the Appropriations Committee; the Commerce, Science, and Transportation Committee; and the Rules and Administration Committee.

As the top Republican on the EPW committee, Ranking Member Capito has advocated for policies to protect the U.S. energy and manufacturing sectors and encourage investment in U.S. infrastructure. She has been a member of the committee since taking office in 2015, and is in a key role leading Congressional oversight of the Biden Administration.

As a member of the Committee on Appropriations, Senator Capito works to ensure West Virginia’s priorities are represented when funding decisions are made. During her time on the committee, she has served as chair of the Legislative Branch Subcommittee, the Financial Services and General Government Subcommittee, and the Homeland Security Subcommittee. Senator Capito currently serves as the top Republican on the Homeland Security Subcommittee, where she oversees funding for a range of national security resources and agencies.

Jigar Shah

Jigar Shah is the Director of the U.S. Department of Energy’s Loan Programs Office, which finances large-scale energy infrastructure projects throughout the United States.

Shah holds a Bachelor of Science in Mechanical Engineering from the University of Illinois, Champaign-Urbana, and an MBA from the University of Maryland. After obtaining his graduate degree in 2001, Shah worked in business development for BP Solar before founding SunEdison LLC, which allowed people to finance rooftop solar panels on a pay-as-you-go basis.

After selling SunEdison in 2008, he served as the first CEO of the Carbon War Room, the global organization founded by Richard Branson and Virgin United that works to harness the power of entrepreneurship to deploy solution technologies at scale. In 2014, he co-founded and served as President of Generate Capital, a specialty finance company focused on funding small-scale, resource-efficient infrastructure to accelerate decarbonization solutions.

Shah is author of the 2013 book Creating Climate Wealth: Unlocking the Impact Economy, which discusses the importance of business model innovation, over new technology, in attracting capital to unlock transformational change. Shah was also a founding co-host of The Energy Gang, a podcast exploring the technological, political, and market forces driving energy and environmental issues, where he was an outspoken critic of energy subsidies, including those for renewable energy.

U.S. Representative Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R-WA)

Cathy McMorris Rodgers represents Washington’s 5th Congressional District, which spans the eastern portion of the state from the Canadian border to the north to the Oregon border on the south. She was first elected to Congress in 2004 after serving for almost a decade in the Washington House of Representatives.

Since 2021, Rodgers has served as the ranking member of the House Energy and Commerce Committee. The committee maintains principal responsibility for legislative oversight relating to the supply and delivery of energy, air quality and environmental health, interstate and foreign commerce, telecommunications, public health, consumer protection, and food and drug safety. She is the first woman from either party to assume a top spot on Energy and Commerce and would be in prime position to command the committee’s chairmanship next year if Republicans win control of the House following the 2022 midterm elections.

As the committee’s ranking member, Rodgers also serves in an ex-officio capacity on the Subcommittees on Communications and Technology; Consumer Protection and Commerce; Energy; Environment and Climate Change; Health; and Oversight and Investigations.

Austin Knudsen

Austin Knudsen is the Attorney General for the State of Montana, a position he has held since January 2021. Previously, he served in the Montana House of Representatives, representing House Districts 34 and 36 through four legislative sessions.

A fifth-generation Montanan, Knudsen grew up on his family’s farm and ranch just outside of Bainville, in the northeast corner of the state, where they raised Angus cattle and grew wheat and sugar beets. He participated in Future Farmers of America (FFA) throughout high school and later met his wife, Christie, while they both served as FFA State Officers during their freshman year at Montana State University-Bozeman.

Knudsen earned a Bachelor of Science in sociology and Bachelor of Arts in political science from Montana State University, followed by a Juris Doctor from the University of Montana. After law school, he worked at a law firm in Plentywood before opening his own practice in Culbertson.

He began his political career in 2010 when he was elected to serve as the Representative for House District 36 and was elected Speaker Pro Tempore (deputy Speaker) in just his second session of service. In 2015 and again in 2017, Knudsen was elected Speaker of the House—one of the youngest people to serve in this capacity in Montana’s history. After serving his maximum allowable four legislative sessions, Knudsen in 2018 was elected Roosevelt County Attorney, where he served for two years before launching his successful campaign for Attorney General.

U.S. Representative Pete Stauber (R-MN)

Pete Stauber represents Minnesota’s 8th Congressional District, which covers much of the northeastern part of the state immediately north of Minneapolis. He serves as Ranking Member of the U.S. House Energy and Mineral Resources Subcommittee. He was first elected to Congress in 2018, defeating Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party candidate Joe Radinovich in one of only three Congressional races nationwide that flipped to a Republican in the midterm elections.

A native of Duluth, Stauber earned a bachelor’s degree in criminology from Lake Superior State University, where he was a star player on the 1988 NCAA Division I Men’s Ice Hockey Championship team. In 1990 he signed with the Detroit Red Wings and played several seasons for the club’s American Hockey League affiliate in Glens Falls, N.Y.

Following a 23-year career in law enforcement, Stauber was elected to the Hermantown City Council, where he served for eight years. In 2013, he joined the St. Louis County (Minnesota) Commission, where he remained until 2019.

His 2018 election to the House of Representatives made him only the fifth person, and the second Republican, to represent Minnesota’s 8th District in 71 years. Re-elected in 2020, he currently serves on the House Committee on Transportation and Infrastructure as well as the Committee on Small Business. He is also a member of both the Congressional Western Caucus and the Republican Main Street Partnership.

U.S. Senator Kevin Cramer (R-ND)

Kevin Cramer has served as U.S. Senator from North Dakota since his election in November 2018. He serves on the Senate Committees on Armed Services; Banking; Budget; Environment and Public Works; and Veterans’ Affairs.

Previously, Cramer served for three terms in the U.S. House representing North Dakota's at-large Congressional District. His record of public service also includes stints as the state's Tourism Director (1993-1997) and its Economic Development Director (1997-2000) before his appointment to the North Dakota Public Service Commission (PSC), where he served from 2003 to 2012.

A native of Kindred, North Dakota—30 miles northeast of Fargo—Cramer received his bachelor of arts degree from Concordia College in Moorehead, Minnesota, and a master's degree in management from the University of Mary, in Bismarck. After graduation, he campaigned for several Republican candidates for statewide election before beginning work at the state Republican party.

At age 30, he became the chairman of the North Dakota Republican Party, making him the youngest member of the Republican National Committee. In 2003, then-Governor John Hoeven appointed Cramer to the state PSC, where his charge included enforcement of federal Surface Mining Control and Reclamation Act (SMCRA) regulations, which cover over 100,000 acres of coal mines under permit.

Cramer and his wife, Kris, have five children and five grandchildren.

Elections

Politico published: “A sour and angry America poised to punish Dems this fall.”

University of Virginia Center for Politics published: “Are Democrats headed for a shellacking in the midterm election?” The Center also predicted: “Trump-district House Democrats could become extinct this November.”

Axios reported progressive strategists have quietly built a massive network of social media communities in political battleground states and predicted a large Democratic loss in November could actually strengthen the progressive wing of the party.

NPR published: “The top 10 Senate seats that are most likely to flip to the other party.”

Axios speculated that the 2024 Senate election map is even more fraught for Democrats than this year.

Washington Post published: “The top 10 Democratic presidential candidates for 2024, ranked.”

Fundraising

The Hill reported on “massive first-quarter fundraising hauls” for both political parties.

Axios charted the House and Senate candidates raising the most special interest money and the top self-funded candidates in key states.

Axios reported Democrats led in first-quarter fundraising in key Senate battleground states.

Departing Members List

Congressional Departures per Election Cycle by Party

U.S. Senate Updates

Former Senator Orrin Hatch (R-UT) passed away.

New York Times published a deep dive on the U.S. Senate race in Nevada.

2022 Senate Race Rankings

Thirty-five Senate seats are being contested this year—21 of which are held by Republicans and 14 of which are held by Democrats. While the Senate map might seem to favor Democrats retaining control of Congress’ upper chamber, the 50-50 Senate split between the parties leaves them essentially no margin to lose seats that they currently hold.

Since the last Political Update was issued, the Cook Political Report has made no changes to its Senate race rankings. The focus is now on the primaries—10 of which will be held in May and a further 12 in June—which will determine the general election matchups. 

Blue type indicates seat currently held by a Democrat; red type indicates seat currently held by a Republican.

Source: Cook Political Report, March 4, 2022.

U.S. House Updates

Former Energy and Commerce Committee Chairman Fred Upton (R-MI-06) became the 50th member of the House to announce he is not seeking reelection this year.

Washington Post’s Congressional retirements tracker revealed Democratic retirements are at the highest level since 2006 and Republican retirements are at the lowest.

Judges in Maryland and New York overturned Congressional district maps that favored Democrats.

2022 House Race Rankings

The battle for the House majority continues to move in a favorable direction for the GOP. The latest race rankings released by the Cook Political Report move eight Democratic-held seats into more competitive categories. There are now 27 Democratic seats in Toss Up or worse, and that number is likely to grow longer when Florida and New Hampshire finalize their redistricting maps and are included in Cook’s race tabulations. In contrast, there are only 12 GOP-held seats in Toss Up or worse—all of which are due to redistricting.

As the situation stands today, Democrats are favored in 186 races, while Republicans are favored in 184 races. Twenty-seven races are listed as “Toss Up.” The GOP needs a net pickup of seven seats to regain the House majority and the speakership.

Blue type indicates seat currently held by a Democrat; red type indicates seat currently held by a Republican.

Source: Cook Political Report, April 20, 2022.

2022 Governor Race Rankings

Thirty-six governor's seats are up for election in 2022—20 of which are currently held by Republicans and 16 of which are held by Democrats. Since the last Political Update, the Cook Political Report has made no changes to its rankings. Currently, it lists 7 governor’s seats—5 currently held by Democrats and 2 held by Republicans—as “toss-ups” worth keeping an eye on.

Blue type indicates seat currently held by a Democrat; red type indicates seat currently held by a Republican.

Source: Cook Political Report, March 4, 2022.

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Questions? Comments? Feel free to contact Ryan Jackson, Senior Vice President, Government & Political Affairs, at RJackson@nma.org. Thank you for your continued support of the Political Action Committees of the National Mining Association!