The race for the Democratic presidential nomination dominated political news since the last edition of Political Update, with the field rapidly winnowing to favor former Vice President Joe Biden. Several important House and Senate races also saw action in primary contests. With COVID-19 response now touching every segment of society, questions abound regarding how it will affect the campaigns and campaigning itself.

2020 U.S. Presidential Election Update

Former Vice President Joe Biden surged into position as the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee following convincing victories on Super Tuesday and subsequent large-state primary contests, which have allowed him to amass a likely insurmountable delegate lead.

Politicos are now speculating if and when Senator Bernie Sanders will drop his presidential bid. Sanders acknowledged weak turnout by his expected base of young people, and some questioned whether his campaign is based on a mis-reading of the 2016 election.

Senator Elizabeth Warren and former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg dropped out immediately after their poor showings on Super Tuesday.

Democratic presidential candidates dropping out of the race in the run-up to Super Tuesday included John Delaney, former Governor Deval Patrick, Senator Michael Bennet, Tom Steyer, and Andrew Yang. Candidates Pete Buttigieg and Senator Amy Klobuchar dropped out immediately prior to Super Tuesday. Rep. Tulsi Gabbard also ended her campaign.

Former Congressman Joe Walsh dropped his bid for the Republican presidential nomination.

President Trump’s last Republican challenger, former Massachusetts Governor Bill Weld, also ended his campaign.

2020 U.S. Presidential and Congressional Campaign Fundraising

Axios reported that in just over a month, Democratic presidential candidate Michael Bloomberg spent more than the top 2020 contenders spent for the whole final quarter of 2019 combined.

The Atlantic chronicled how Bloomberg spent $500 million in 16 weeks, then dropped out less than 12 hours after polls closed on the first day he was on the ballot.

New York Times published: “The Extraordinary Scale of Bloomberg’s Ads, in Six Charts.”

Roll Call reported the average vulnerable House Democrat started 2020 with $1.8 million already in the bank.

Following are fourth-quarter and cash-on-hand totals for the remaining 2020 U.S. Presidential candidates.

SOURCE: FEC Reports, March 8, 2020.

Following are fourth-quarter and cash-on-hand totals for the major announced 2020 U.S. Senatorial candidates:

SOURCE: FEC Reports, March 8, 2020. Boldface indicates incumbent.

Schedule of Democratic Primaries and Caucuses

*Puerto Rico's Democratic Party has requested to move its primary from March 26 to April 26.
At press time, this request had not yet been acted on.

Source: Election Central, March 19, 2020.

2020 Electoral College Ratings

Since the last Political Update, analyst Charlie Cook has made six changes to his electoral map predictor, which shows a continuing tight battle for the White House. MI (16) moves from Lean D to Toss Up; IA (6) moves from Lean R to Likely R; ME-02 (1) moves from Lean R to Likely R; NE-02 (1) moves from Lean R to Toss Up; OH (18) moves from Lean R to Likely R; and TX (38) moves from Likely R to Lean R.

The Democratic nominee is now favored in states with 232 electoral votes; President Trump is favored in states with 204 electoral votes; and states with 102 electoral votes are rated Toss Up. The Democratic nominee cannot reach 270 electoral votes without winning at least two states that are currently labeled “Toss Up.” President Trumps cannot reach 270 electoral votes without winning at least four states that are currently labeled Toss Up.” All six states and Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District, currently labeled as Toss Ups, went for President Trump in 2016.

Source: Cook Political Report, March 9, 2020.

Departing Members List

U.S. Senate Updates

Democratic Montana Governor Steve Bullock announced he will challenge Republican Senator Steve Daines.

Rep. Doug Collins (R-GA-09) launched a primary challenge against appointed Senator Kelly Loeffler (R-GA).

President Donald Trump endorsed retired college football coach Tommy Tuberville, who is challenging former Attorney General Jeff Sessions’ bid to regain his Alabama Senate seat. (The Republican primary election was postponed because of COVID-19.)

Former state senator Cal Cunningham won the North Carolina Democratic primary, setting up a challenge to incumbent Senator Thom Tillis (R-NC).

2020 Senate Race Rankings

While Republicans currently hold a 53-47 majority in the Senate, four races—McSally (AZ), Gardner (CO), Collins (ME), and Tillis (NC)—are currently rated as Toss Ups. If Democrats flip a net four seats—or just three if a Democrat wins the Presidency—they will take back the majority for the first time since 2014.

Since the last Political Update, analyst Charlie Cook has shifted his outlook on seven Senate races, five of which have moved in Democrats’ favor. Races moving in Democrats' favor are the following: Daines (MT) moves from Solid R to Lean R; Cornyn (TX) moves from Solid R to Likely R; Loeffler (GA) and Ernst (IA) both move from Likely R to Lean R; and Tillis (NC) moves from Lean R to Toss Up. Races moving in Republicans' favor are Jones (AL), which moves from Toss Up to Lean R, and Hyde-Smith (MS), which moves from Likely R to Solid R.

Source: Cook Political Report, March 20, 2020.

U.S. House Updates

Blue Dog Democrat Rep. Dan Lipinksi (D-IL-03) lost a primary election to challenger Marie Newman.

Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-TX-28) survived a primary challenge from his left.

Rep. Kay Granger (R-TX-12) fended off a primary challenge from her right.

State Senator Tom Tiffany won the Republican primary for the May special election in Wisconsin’s 7th District to replace former Rep. Sean P. Duffy, who resigned in September.

2020 House Race Rankings

Republicans face an uphill battle to take back the majority in the House of Representatives in November. Currently, Democrats hold a 232-197 advantage, with one independent member and five vacancies. Adding to the challenge is that 27 Republican representatives have announced they will not seek re-election this year, compared to just 9 incumbent Democrats who have chosen not to run for their House seat.

Since the last Political Update, analyst Charlie Cook has changed his outlook on seven House races, five of which have moved in Republicans’ favor. Those moving in Republicans’ favor are the following: PA-16 Kelly and WI-07 Vacant both move from Likely R to Safe R; CA-21 Cox and VA-07 Spanberger both move from Lean D to Toss Up D; and PA-07 Wild moves from Likely D to Lean D. Races moving in Democrats’ favor are CA-45 Porter, which moves from Lean D to Likely D, and CA-49 Levin, which moves from Likely D to Safe D.

Summary:
Solid Seats: Democrats 182, Republicans 164
Likely/Lean Seats: Democrats 32, Republicans 28
Toss Up or Worse: Democrats 20, Republicans 8

Source: Cook Political Report, March 19, 2020.

2020 Governor Race Rankings

Eleven governor's seats are up for election in 2020—seven of which are currently held by Republicans and four of which are held by Democrats. Despite Republicans having to defend more seats than Democrats, all seven of their seats are currently rated Likely R or Solid R. Meanwhile, two of the four seats that Democrats will defend—Cooper (NC) and Bullock Open (MT)—are rated, respectively, Lean D and Toss Up. Since the last Political Update, analyst Charlie Cook has made no changes to his outlook on any of the governor’s races.

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Questions? Comments? Feel free to contact Ryan Jackson, Senior Vice President, Government & Political Affairs, at RJackson@nma.org. Thank you for your continued support of the Political Action Committees of the National Mining Association!